“Let’s just try it a bit higher and see what happens.”
It's one of the most common and most understandable phrases we hear when discussing price. After all, what is the harm in testing the market? Quite a lot, as it turns out. Not because sellers are wrong to want the best price, but because the market does not behave the way many people assume it does. Time, pricing, and buyer behaviour are far more closely linked than most sellers are ever told. Here is what actually happens when a property launches at a price the market does not agree with.
The first few weeks are not a warm-up.
Many sellers believe the early weeks are simply about exposure. In reality, they are about decision-making. The strongest buyers are: 1. Already registered 2. Watching new listings closely 3. Book viewings quickly and 4. Comparing your home to other fresh, well-priced properties
This is when demand is at its most honest. Data drawn from millions of UK property transactions shows that homes which agree a sale within the first 25 days, usually because they are realistically priced, have around a 94% chance of reaching exchange and completion. That is not luck. That is momentum. And momentum is more important than you may think.
What happens when the price is too high
When a property launches above where the market sees value, the response is immediate, even if it is not always visible. Buyers do not necessarily complain, nor call us to talk about the price. They simply move on, voting with their feet. Viewings slow, feedback becomes vague, and the property quietly slides down the portal rankings. The “test” is not neutral. Its cards are being marked.
By the time a home has been on the market for around 12 weeks, the numbers become stark. If it has not sold by then, it has only a 14.5% chance of ever selling. Yes, less than 15%! Not because it is a bad home. Because the market has already answered the question.
“But we can always reduce later…”
This is where optimism meets statistics. Price reductions do not reset the clock in the way many sellers hope. Buyers can see the history. They know the home has not sold. They know something has changed. This changes buyer psychology in three important ways: 1. Buyer quality shifts. Early buyers tend to be motivated and organised. Later buyers are more likely to be cautious, price-sensitive, or looking for leverage. 2. Negotiation becomes one-sided. A reduced price will often signal not value, but vulnerability. Buyers expect further movement, particularly after survey and 3. Survey risk increases. A property that has failed to sell at higher levels is harder to justify at the new price, especially if comparable evidence is thin. Down-valuations become more likely. This is why sales agreed later are statistically weaker. If a sale is agreed around 100 days into marketing, the chance of that transaction reaching exchange and completion drops to around 56%. Almost half do not make it.
The hidden cost of time
There is another statistic that rarely gets mentioned. Only 53.5% of homes that come to market actually go on to sell. The rest withdraw, often after months of effort, viewings, and reductions. Very few of those sellers started out intending to withdraw.
What tends to happen instead is: Fatigue sets in, Confidence erodes, Decisions become reactive and eventually, the plan changes. The property did not fail. The strategy did. An important distinction.
The irony most sellers never hear
Since 2001, UK homes have sold within roughly 0.9% to 1.3% of their final asking price. Not the original asking price. The final one after reductions. In other words, overpricing does not usually result in a higher sale price. It simply delays the inevitable adjustment, while increasing the risk of failure along the way.
So, what is the smarter approach?
Pricing well is not about undercutting the market. It is about meeting it accurately at launch when demand is strongest and buyers are most committed. A realistic asking price: Protects momentum, Attracts better buyers, Reduces survey risk, Increases the likelihood of a smooth completion and ultimately protects your equity. “Testing the market” feels safe. In reality, it is one of the riskiest pricing strategies a seller can adopt.
At Cooke Curtis & Co, pricing is not about winning instructions or chasing optimism. It is about evidence, timing, and giving your move the best possible chance of success. Because the market always gives an answer. The question is whether you listen early — or learn later.
